It’s been a long time coming, but Kraken has finally taken the steps the world has been waiting for. A pair of mega fundraising rounds and an S1 filing now make it clear: they intend to go public, likely sometime within the next few months.
My current projection points to February 18 as the most likely IPO date, although the exact timing will ultimately depend on market conditions and the pace at which the SEC gives its blessing.
The recent US government shutdown and the sharp downward move in crypto markets (BTC and ETH down 22% and 28% over the past 30 days, respectively, as of this writing) could both play a role in timing. Still, Q1 or early Q2 remains my base case.
Kraken has always been methodical and transparent, and they’ve pointed to Q1 as a target. However, co-CEO Arjun Sethi has also made it clear they’ll only pursue an IPO if it genuinely serves their clients. But what exactly does that mean?
Those clients include professional traders who may simply want access to the stock. More importantly, going public would unlock the capital needed for product expansion, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships.
Which brings us to the news this week that Citadel Securities is investing $200M into Kraken at a $20B valuation, bringing total recent funding to $800M.
I’m happy this mega round is happening because I’ve told several brokers recently that I had high confidence it would, based on market conditions and Kraken’s public financials. I feel vindicated, even if secondary prices remain flat. I had no clue Citadel would be involved.
In retrospect, it feels obvious. Citadel, the largest market maker in the world, needs meaningful crypto exposure now that Trump is back in office and Paul Atkins is set to run a pro-crypto SEC. Like many heavily regulated institutions, they likely had minimal prior exposure.
Meanwhile Kraken, crypto native from day one, hasn’t had a significant footprint in traditional markets, at least not until the recent launch of xStocks and the rollout of traditional stock trading for US clients earlier this year.
So we arrive at a productive intersection: Kraken is moving into TradFi just as Citadel needs a foothold in crypto.
The investment is validating for Kraken ahead of the IPO because it signals to Wall Street that they can work with the biggest players in global finance.
If Citadel simply wanted industry exposure, they could’ve bought Coinbase stock in the public market and partnered with Coinbase directly. Coinbase earns 28% of its nearly $8B in revenue from services, most of which are institutional. They would’ve been an obvious partner. But Citadel must have seen Kraken as equal or even superior in long-term strategic potential, with more upside at a more attractive multiple.
Kraken also serves small firms and retail clients, all the way down to everyday users of its Krak payments app, while Citadel serves only large institutions. This contrast hints at new potential synergies across the full stack of capital markets.
So how do I feel about the IPO prospects? The crypto market dip creates a weaker backdrop. Kraken’s done an excellent job diversifying its business with the acquisition of the NinjaTrader futures platform and the expansion into equities, and these moves make the company more resilient. But none of it fully shields the company from a major crypto market meltdown.
For the IPO specifically, it would’ve been better to go out earlier in 2025 when the market was extremely receptive and paying premium valuations for crypto names basking in the afterglow of Trump’s pro-crypto mandate. The medium-term outlook is more uncertain now.
That said, crypto prices are still quite high. With BTC at $83k, the market is only down 14% from the 12-month average of $98k, which is by far the highest 12-month average price in history.
This can be interpreted in a few ways: The market should remain favourable to a company as profitable and durable as Kraken. And their revenues for the year, even with the recent market dip, will still show material upward momentum.
The bull case is simple: crypto rallies in Q4 and Q1 2026, and Kraken enters the public markets with strong numbers and perfect timing. Under the right conditions, Kraken could absolutely be a $30B company by Q2 2026.
In the bear case, the crypto market flounders. The IPO may struggle to exceed $20B and could even get delayed. Even then, going public might still make sense, as beginning at a modest valuation could make their long-term story even stronger.
In any case, my view is that Kraken has the potential to create more value over the next five years than any other company in the space, and I’m excited to see the legendary beast begin its next chapter.