Critics have long argued that the NBA’s structure encourages weaker teams to “tank”—losing games on purpose late in the season to improve draft odds—and that the problem has grown worse in recent years.
Consider a team projected to finish 11th or 12th in its conference. These teams are excluded from the play-in tournament, which eliminates any chance at a playoff run, and still end up with very low odds of securing a top pick in the draft lottery.
Current Lottery Odds:
| Overall Lottery Rank | Approximate Odds for Top Pick |
|---|---|
| 1st (Worst record) | ~14% |
| 2nd | ~14% |
| 3rd | ~14% |
| 4th | 12.5% |
| 5th | 11% |
| 6th | 9% |
| 7th | 7.5% |
| 8th | 6% |
| 9th | 4% |
| 10th | 2.5% |
| 11th–14th (Best among non-playoffs) | 1.5% |
When a playoff run is out of reach, losing becomes the only way to “win” long term by improving draft position.
Some teams resort to “ethical tanking,” playing mostly young bench players to give them experience. But is that really a viable approach for a serious professional team? The pride of athletes and their cities shouldn’t hinge on what amounts to an elaborate scrimmage, especially when the NBA G League already exists for development.
For any team destined to finish 11th or worse, there’s little incentive to compete late in the season. It’s a clear misalignment that hurts the league, betrays the fans, and undermines the spirit of the sport. Something needs to change.
A New Model: Six & Six
At the heart of this proposal is a “Six & Six” system. In each conference, the top six teams still earn automatic playoff spots, while the next six teams (those finishing 7–12) compete in an expanded play-in tournament for the final two spots.
Beyond simply giving more teams a legitimate shot at the playoffs and adding meaningful games to the schedule, this model would also tie draft lottery odds directly to play-in performance.
Group Definitions
- Non–Qualifiers (Non–Play-In Teams):
These are teams finishing 13–15 in each conference. Their draft lottery odds are based solely on their regular season records; they all receive a flat 8% chance. - Play–In Teams:
These are teams finishing 7–12 that compete in the expanded play-in tournament. Their final draft lottery ranking is determined entirely by their play-in performance. Better play-in results earn significantly higher draft odds.
Proposed Play–In Tournament Structure
- Game 1: 7th seed vs. 8th seed
• Outcome: Winner earns playoff berth; loser advances to Game 5. - Game 2: 9th seed vs. 12th seed
• Outcome: Loser is eliminated; winner advances to Game 4. - Game 3: 10th seed vs. 11th seed
• Outcome: Loser is eliminated; winner advances to Game 4. - Game 4: Winner of Game 2 vs. Winner of Game 3
• Outcome: Winner advances to Game 5; loser is eliminated. - Game 5: Loser of Game 1 vs. Winner of Game 4
• Outcome: Winner secures the final playoff spot; loser is eliminated.
(*Note: The higher-seeded team is always the home team.)
Proposed Draft Lottery Odds
Once the 2 play-in winners from each conference advance to the playoffs, they are removed from lottery consideration.
This leaves 7 lottery positions per conference (14 total league-wide), filled by the 4 play-in losers and the 3 teams that failed to qualify for the play-in entirely. The draft odds for these 14 teams are distributed as follows:
| Lottery Position | Source | Proposed Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 & 2 | Best in play–in | 11.5% |
| 3 & 4 | Second-best in play–in | 8% |
| 5 – 10 | Non–Qualifiers | 8% each |
| 11 & 12 | Third-best in play–in | 4% |
| 13 & 14 | Worst in the play–in | 2.5% |
Benefits of the New Model
Maintaining Competitive Integrity:
Every game matters. Even lower-ranking teams have a strong incentive to compete since strong play-in performance can significantly improve draft odds.
Exciting End-of-Season Drama:
With more teams vying for playoff spots and better lottery odds, the season’s final stretch is more compelling.
Building a Winning Culture:
Rebuilding teams shift their focus from intentionally losing to striving for the best performance.
Balancing Rewards:
Non–qualifiers (teams finishing 13–15) receive uniform lottery odds based on their records, while play-in teams are rewarded based on performance—ensuring a substantial benefit for those who perform well in crucial play-in games.
Enhanced Revenue and Fan Engagement:
An expanded, high-stakes play-in tournament boosts NBA revenue and creates a more engaging experience for fans.
Elevating the Spirit of Competition
The current system rewards losing, undermining the competitive spirit of the NBA. By expanding the play-in tournament and linking draft lottery odds to play-in performance, every game can truly matter.
The “Six & Six” system not only preserves the excitement of the sport but also encourages teams to compete with integrity—ultimately benefiting the league, its fans, and the game of basketball.